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Charting the Non-Linear Events in Life

Charting the Non-Linear Events in Life

Mathematician Eugenia Cheng explores the uses of math beyond the classroom. Read more columns here.

Many of us have experienced grief recently, having lost loved ones to the pandemic or suffered other tragedies. It is often said that grief isn’t linear; it doesn’t plod in a predictable straight line, but takes terrible twists and turns, rearing up without warning.

I can think of few things as unmathematical as grief, yet we use this oddly mathematical term “linear” to discuss it. Linear algebra is essentially the math of things that move in straight lines. It is a very stringent requirement. Like grief, most things are not linear. But there are other types of behavior we can look for in mathematical functions and real life.

If a function keeps going in generally the same direction, though not in a straight line, it’s called monotonic. Exponentials and logarithms are monotonic but not linear. Some people argue that rates of taxation should be monotonic with income, so that someone who earns more doesn’t pay a lower effective tax rate; however, this is often not the case in practice. People who want to lose or gain weight often get frustrated that body weight is not monotonic across time, but fluctuates up and down with things like fluid retention. Sometimes a monotonic function can be derived, despite fluctuations, by taking averages across chunks of time, say a week, or a month.

Charts are not just about drawing pretty pictures, but finding ways to understand key features about a function quickly.

The behavior of functions is much easier to recognize visually than in a formula, so we draw graphs to help us. Turning a function into a graph is an amazing process of translating something abstract and invisible into something that allows us to invoke our visual intuition. When we draw a function out on a graph we can immediately see other features beyond linearity and monotonicity, such as whether or not it has gaps or sharp corners. If it has no gaps it is called continuous, and if it has no corners it is called smooth.

Calculus provides techniques for figuring what the graph is going to look like beyond plotting points, because even if you plot millions of points you might miss some feature in between those points. The idea is to understand how abstract features give rise to the visual features (corners, gaps and so on): It’s not just about drawing pretty pictures, but finding ways to understand key features about a function quickly.

We might also do the reverse and take some data, plot the graph, and then try and fit a function to it. We can then use the function to predict what will happen in the future. This is what is done with data in the pandemic: Case numbers provide data that can be plotted in a graph, and then a function can be found that approximates those numbers. As the function can be applied to points in time beyond the data we have now, this gives us a way of estimating what will happen in the future. It’s not an exact science, because many non-linear functions that start off with the same shape behave differently later.

Reverse-engineering a function to fit some experimental data can also give us insight into causality. The structure of the function may indicate to us some basic principles at work, such as the laws of physics. Tracking the motion of planets enabled mathematicians to fit their path to an ellipse shape, with the motion dependent on a planet’s position relative to the sun at any moment. This is just a mathematical formula, but hints at the sun’s physical role in influencing the movement of the planets.

Saying grief isn’t linear is a severe understatement, as it’s not even monotonic, continuous, or smooth. Math gives us ways to carefully distinguish between different scenarios and sequences to delineate any situation. This doesn’t make grief go away, but it can be cathartic to have ways to depict its unpredictable trajectory.

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Apple Event 2022: New Low-End iPhone Expected to Have 5G Service

Apple Event 2022: New Low-End iPhone Expected to Have 5G Service

Apple Inc.


AAPL -0.38%

is bringing 5G cellular connectivity to cheaper iPhones, a move some on Wall Street say will continue to fuel record sales this year as concerns linger over demand for the more-expensive versions.

The Cupertino, Calif., tech giant is slated to reveal the third-generation iPhone SE on Tuesday during a virtual event on the company’s website, starting at 1 p.m. ET. Apple is also expected to unveil an updated iPad Air with a faster processor as well as 5G, and new computers with faster chips, according to a person familiar with the plans.

The iPhone SE was an early pandemic darling for Apple. Sales of the device approached 25 million, or 12% of the company’s estimated global smartphone shipments, in 2020, according to researcher IDC. Apple doesn’t break out results by iPhone model.

The low-end model, which starts at $399 and comes with the smallest display size of 4.7 inches, fared less well in the past year with the arrival of Apple’s flagship products. Those include the iPhone 12 lineup, which introduced ultrafast 5G to the company’s smartphone offerings for the first time and was given a boost with price breaks from carriers eager to get customers onto the new cellular networks.

Sales of the high-end devices helped propel iPhone sales to a record $192 billion in fiscal 2021 and contributed to the year’s record profit of almost $100 billion. At the same time, shipments of the iPhone SE that lacked 5G fell an estimated 40% in 2021 compared with 2020, according to IDC.

“Obviously, some of the phones that Apple has launched have been really expensive, for the mostly mid- to high-end consumer, so now you get an affordable phone with 5G,”

Samik Chatterjee,

an analyst for

J.P. Morgan,

said in an interview.

Mr. Chatterjee raised his earnings estimates for the fiscal year because of expectations for the iPhone lineup, including his faith in the potential of the SE model to appeal to price-conscious buyers looking for 5G. He is forecasting that the SE version could tally 30 million units sold in the first year and help boost overall iPhone shipments to a record of 250 million.

“That’s what will give investors confidence that Apple can continue to grow iPhone revenues,” he said.

Starting in February, U.S. cellular carriers will begin to shut down 3G. WSJ’s Joanna Stern got an old iPhone 3G and iPhone 4 working on the old network, in order to remember all it did to shape the smartphone revolution. Photo illustration: Preston Jessee for The Wall Street Journal

The iPhone 12—and the iterative iPhone 13 versions introduced last fall—helped fuel renewed interest among Chinese consumers. The iPhone’s strength was aided by the collapse of Huawei Technologies Co.’s smartphone business amid sanctions by the U.S. government. The sanctions stripped Huawei of the ability to use

Alphabet Inc.’s


GOOG 0.23%

Android operating system. In the final three months of last year, the iPhone retook the top spot as the bestselling smartphone in China. Mr. Chatterjee said the SE model could benefit from the China dynamics and the country’s interest in 5G phones.

Other analysts seem to be warming to Apple’s potential this year as well. As recently as late last year, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet predicted flat iPhone sales for the current fiscal year, which ends in September, amid worries that the appeal of the iPhone might have peaked during the year after the big upgrade with 5G technology.

In recent weeks, optimism about the company’s outlook has been growing, aided by stronger-than-expected results for the final three months of last year. Analysts now expect iPhone revenue to rise 5% this fiscal year—after soaring 39% in fiscal 2021.

When the first SE model made its debut in 2016, some analysts said the device could help Apple in markets outside of the U.S. where the iPhone—which can cost more than $1,500—is priced out of reach. Instead, the top three markets for the cheaper device last year were the U.S., Japan and Western Europe, according to IDC.

‘Some of the phones that Apple has launched have been really expensive, for the mostly mid- to high-end consumer, so now you get an affordable phone with 5G.’


— Samik Chatterjee, J.P. Morgan analyst

In China, the SE made up less than 10% of shipments, according to Chiew Le Xuan, an analyst at research firm Canalys. He said the phone struggled against budget-oriented Android rivals and expressed skepticism that the new version would do well in China.

“The iPhone SE third generation may seem like a hit in China due to Apple’s increasing market share and 5G penetration,” he said in an email. “However, according to Canalys data, Chinese consumers are inclined towards phones with a larger display.”

In the U.S., the SE has been a gateway to the Apple brand for owners of less-expensive Android phones. Last year, 26% of SE buyers previously had an Android phone, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners’ surveys of consumers. “IPhone SE has become a sort of entry-level iPhone, mostly because of its price point,” said

Michael Levin,

Consumer Intelligence Research co-founder.

Apple again might benefit from carriers eager to push its latest phones on customers, according to

Cliff Maldonado,

principal analyst for BayStreet Research, which tracks marketing efforts by the wireless-service providers.

The carriers are eager to move customers from 4G to the new faster networks because it is cheaper for them to deliver the same amount of data. Mr. Maldonado forecasts that carriers will reach about 95% of 5G subscribers in mid-2024. 5G has been aimed at improving connections for games and videos.

“The carriers will be happy to push the SE3 over the previous SE2 at roughly the same $400 price point because the SE3 will allow the carrier to support the phone less expensively on 5G than 4G LTE,” he said.

Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Living Skies Student Film Festival takes seats for 34th annual event

Living Skies Student Film Festival takes seats for 34th annual event

“[We’re] trying to recreate this festival [and] almost pay homage to the past festival and keep its essence, but also be something entirely new.” – co-organizer Jillian Bader

REGINA — Co-organizer and filmmaker Jillian Bader was excited to step into the Shumiatcher Open Stage Thursday night for the opening of the Living Skies Student Film Festival, to celebrate the talents of up-and-coming student filmmakers.

“I think everyone’s excited  to have in-person screenings,” said Bader, prior to the event’s debut. “I just feel like it makes the festival even more exciting.”

Living Skies takes place annually through the University of Regina film program, as a festival organized by students to spotlight students. It’s one of the longest-running student film festivals in the country, celebrating 34 years.

This will mark the first time that the festival is being offered as a hybrid event, said Bader, with audiences welcome to join virtually from home or come down to the Shumiatcher — known locally as the Shubox — on campus to grab a seat and watch the broadcasted events live.

The festival, set to offer workshops and screenings of films submitted from across the globe, will be continuing from March 3-5, with three exciting guests and 67 films selected for this year’s shortlist.

“The theme this year is ‘Reunion,’” said Bader. “We just haven’t seen a lot of people in a long time and really wanted [the festival] to feel like a family reunion.”

For Bader, who has played the role of audience member, filmmaker and now organizer for the event, it’s an exciting moment to see the festival evolve into something new.

“It’s kind of daunting [as an organizer], in the sense that you’re trying to recreate this festival [and] almost pay homage to the past festival and keep its essence, but also be something entirely new,” said Bader. “But I think it’s been a really rewarding challenge.”

She said organizers have seen a surge of interest in the festival in the past few years, especially after things went virtual two years ago and audiences outside of Regina were suddenly able to tune in more easily.

So while organizers were happy to welcome audiences back into the Shubox, keeping ahold of some online aspects was important to them, said Bader.

“It’s nice to have international students who submitted be able to view our festival,” said Bader. “And then relatives in America, the U.K., they can come watch the films their friends have made, so I think it’s definitely getting more attention.”

Around 1,100 film submissions from 90 countries were received by the festival selection committee this year, and 15 films from University of Regina students were selected as finalists, including Bader herself.

“We have a really good amount of submissions from the U of R , which we love including,” said Bader. “We’re really thankful for that because it means so many more people are out for Best of Saskatchewan, one of our awards.”

living skies student film festival
The festival is organized by a crew of University of Regina film students, pictured L-R: Adrienne Kaye, Giovana Nabarrete, Amy Hameluck, Matthew Hood, Calandra Iverson, Gabrielle Caswell, Jillian Bader, Olivia Epp. Not pictured: Samuel Greenman-Barber. (supplied by Living Skies Student Film Festival)

Bader described Living Skies as an opportunity for student filmmakers to dip their toes into the industry, allowing first-time directors to get involved in a low-key industry event.

“It’s just a really inspiring event to go to, because you get to see all these international films from students your age, and it helps you realize what kind of potential you have,” said Bader.

“With a lot of student filmmakers, it can be kind of nerve-wracking to get involved with the film industry, or even the arts community in Saskatchewan,” she continued. “But seeing what other students have to offer and seeing the sense of community played out here at our festival, students feel more comfortable getting involved, reaching out, asking to collaborate.”

The festival kicked off Thursday night with a workshop on documentary filmmaking with acclaimed Canadian filmmaker Su Rynard, followed by screenings of several festival films.

Continuing on Friday, the Saskatchewan Filmpool will host a roundtable discussion about the filmmaking industry, followed by another evening of film screenings.

Saturday will close out the festival with a question and answer event with Danis Goulet, director of film Night Raiders which debuted at the 2021 Berlinale and the Toronto International Film Festival, where Goulet received a TIFF Tribute Award. 

“[Goulet’s] film is having really great success in both Saskatchewan and Canada, so we’re very excited to have her,” said Bader.

The evening will end with screenings of the final group of films, followed by presentation of the festival’s awards.

Living Skies Student Film Festival is an event entirely free of charge, and more details about this year’s schedule and selected films can be found online through the festival’s website. Attendees choosing to 

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Digital social events worked well for people living with dementia – Dr Gary Kerr

Digital social events worked well for people living with dementia - Dr Gary Kerr
Dr Gary Kerr, Associate Professor in Festival and Event Management at Edinburgh Napier University.

In Scotland, around two-thirds of those diagnosed with dementia are living at home, with the remainder in acute or residential care. A key challenge for all is the sense of isolation that can manifest early on after a diagnosis.

Pre-pandemic, social events were a key factor in boosting a sense of wellbeing for those affected, but lockdown brought with it particular challenges for this community.

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Our highly collaborative research project, Unlock & Revive, identified six active ingredients needed to deliver accessible online cultural and heritage events. The research was led by Edinburgh Napier, working with the University of Edinburgh, during a three-month period from April to June 2021 and involved seven Edinburgh-based cultural and heritage organisations running weekly online events that featured gardening, painting, art, cookery, history, literature and music amongst other topics.

We monitored the sessions in person, ran post-event focus groups with attendees, and carried out interviews with event organisers and found online events do boost attendees’ sense of wellbeing; build confidence; and establish a newfound appreciation for leisure activities and hobbies.

1 – Keep any event under sixty-minutes-long. A mid-morning start time is preferred.

2 – Include short interactive presentations, using simple language and supplemental visuals.

3 – Keep the number of attendees low and aim for engagement over education; and presenters should use multi-sensory triggers to create engaging narratives, allocating plenty of time for participant-led discussions.

4 – Ensure all event facilitators have up-to-date Dementia Training from a reputable institution.

5 – Organise regular socials and not one-off events. Using Zoom is the ideal platform: its ‘spotlight’ function is effective when combined with an administrator’s support to let people in, oversee the chatbox and monitor participants’ wellbeing.

6 – Lastly, Unlock & Revive emphasises that a grassroots approach is taken to advertise these events, as social media promotions are less effective in reaching this audience.

As restrictions begin to ease, online events should still be considered, with most of those participating keen to see some form of online delivery maintained.

The format for an in-person event does not easily transfer to a digital delivery model, and particular effort must be made to facilitate maximum engagement and participation from participants when delivering events online for those living with dementia. Although 100% of participants told us they prefer in-person Dementia Socials, we found clear evidence that digital events do provide opportunities for social connection, and stimulation for individuals unable to attend live events – whether that is due to mobility and/or transportation barriers.

Everyone involved in our research expressed their appreciation and enjoyment of online socials and now see them as a useful option for a hybrid event model in the future. Our research has identified the active ingredients needed to deliver accessible online cultural and heritage events, which can only bring positive benefits to people living with dementia, and their caregivers.

Our full report can be downloaded at here.

Dr Gary Kerr, Associate Professor in Festival and Event Management at Edinburgh Napier University.

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No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

LOS ANGELES (AP) — There are no known security threats to the Super Bowl, authorities said Tuesday as they outlined the coordinated law-enforcement effort to keep the game at SoFi Stadium and the Los Angeles region safe.

Fans attending the game can expect an enormous police presence at the stadium, which will have a tightly monitored security perimeter. Meanwhile patrol officers, tactical teams, K-9 units and paramedics will be been deployed across Los Angeles County in the run-up to the NFL championship game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said at least 500 members of his department are devoted to safety for the big game, including agents focused on ferreting out cyberthreats and preventing human trafficking.

“We have no information of a specific, credible threat against the Super Bowl,” said Mayorkas. “What this is all about is planning and preparation to prevent any incident from occurring.”

Mayorkas’s department, however, warned that a truck convoy on the order of those clogging central Ottawa, Ontario, and disrupting U.S.-Canadian commerce at a bridge near Detroit could emerge and create problems near the Super Bowl site.

Don’t miss: Homeland Security Department voices concern about Super Bowl and State of the Union disruptions by Canada-style truck convoy

Air Force fighter jets will enforce a temporary flight-restricted zone on Sunday in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies. NORAD earlier in the week scheduled a defense exercise for the airspace over the Inglewood area.

The city police department in Inglewood, where the stadium is located, is the lead local law-enforcement effort. It will coordinate with the Los Angeles Police Department and the sheriff’s department. About 400 deputies were dedicated to the Super Bowl, including extra patrols for the county’s transit system, said Jack Ewell, chief of the sheriff’s Special Operations Division.

Inglewood Police Chief Mark Fronterotta said his officers will focus on preventing fights between fans, after a San Francisco 49ers fan suffered a brain injury during an altercation outside SoFi during the NFC championship game last month. “The parking lots will be extensively covered,” Fronterotta said.

Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said there has been no disorderly behavior at pre–Super Bowl activities at the downtown L.A. Convention Center. The LAPD has canceled some scheduled time off to ensure the department has enough staff for all the week’s events, including a possible victory parade for the Rams, Moore said.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the media on Wednesday on the SoFi Stadium campus in Inglewood, Calif.


Rob Carr/Getty Images

Only small, clear bags will be allowed inside the stadium on game day, though fans are encouraged to bring as little as possible with them.

“If you want to breeze through security, less is more. The less you bring, the faster you go through security,” said Cathy Lanier, the NFL’s chief security officer.

Security measures extend to the skies, too. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, known as NORAD, planned a defense exercise on Tuesday for the airspace over greater Inglewood. On Sunday, U.S. Air Force fighter jets will enforce the temporary flight-restricted zone in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies.

The FAA warned that drone operators who fly unmanned aircraft into the restricted area could face large fines and potential criminal prosecution.

MarketWatch contributed.