Posted on

Charting the Non-Linear Events in Life

Charting the Non-Linear Events in Life

Mathematician Eugenia Cheng explores the uses of math beyond the classroom. Read more columns here.

Many of us have experienced grief recently, having lost loved ones to the pandemic or suffered other tragedies. It is often said that grief isn’t linear; it doesn’t plod in a predictable straight line, but takes terrible twists and turns, rearing up without warning.

I can think of few things as unmathematical as grief, yet we use this oddly mathematical term “linear” to discuss it. Linear algebra is essentially the math of things that move in straight lines. It is a very stringent requirement. Like grief, most things are not linear. But there are other types of behavior we can look for in mathematical functions and real life.

If a function keeps going in generally the same direction, though not in a straight line, it’s called monotonic. Exponentials and logarithms are monotonic but not linear. Some people argue that rates of taxation should be monotonic with income, so that someone who earns more doesn’t pay a lower effective tax rate; however, this is often not the case in practice. People who want to lose or gain weight often get frustrated that body weight is not monotonic across time, but fluctuates up and down with things like fluid retention. Sometimes a monotonic function can be derived, despite fluctuations, by taking averages across chunks of time, say a week, or a month.

Charts are not just about drawing pretty pictures, but finding ways to understand key features about a function quickly.

The behavior of functions is much easier to recognize visually than in a formula, so we draw graphs to help us. Turning a function into a graph is an amazing process of translating something abstract and invisible into something that allows us to invoke our visual intuition. When we draw a function out on a graph we can immediately see other features beyond linearity and monotonicity, such as whether or not it has gaps or sharp corners. If it has no gaps it is called continuous, and if it has no corners it is called smooth.

Calculus provides techniques for figuring what the graph is going to look like beyond plotting points, because even if you plot millions of points you might miss some feature in between those points. The idea is to understand how abstract features give rise to the visual features (corners, gaps and so on): It’s not just about drawing pretty pictures, but finding ways to understand key features about a function quickly.

We might also do the reverse and take some data, plot the graph, and then try and fit a function to it. We can then use the function to predict what will happen in the future. This is what is done with data in the pandemic: Case numbers provide data that can be plotted in a graph, and then a function can be found that approximates those numbers. As the function can be applied to points in time beyond the data we have now, this gives us a way of estimating what will happen in the future. It’s not an exact science, because many non-linear functions that start off with the same shape behave differently later.

Reverse-engineering a function to fit some experimental data can also give us insight into causality. The structure of the function may indicate to us some basic principles at work, such as the laws of physics. Tracking the motion of planets enabled mathematicians to fit their path to an ellipse shape, with the motion dependent on a planet’s position relative to the sun at any moment. This is just a mathematical formula, but hints at the sun’s physical role in influencing the movement of the planets.

Saying grief isn’t linear is a severe understatement, as it’s not even monotonic, continuous, or smooth. Math gives us ways to carefully distinguish between different scenarios and sequences to delineate any situation. This doesn’t make grief go away, but it can be cathartic to have ways to depict its unpredictable trajectory.

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Posted on

Apple Event 2022: New Low-End iPhone Expected to Have 5G Service

Apple Event 2022: New Low-End iPhone Expected to Have 5G Service

Apple Inc.


AAPL -0.38%

is bringing 5G cellular connectivity to cheaper iPhones, a move some on Wall Street say will continue to fuel record sales this year as concerns linger over demand for the more-expensive versions.

The Cupertino, Calif., tech giant is slated to reveal the third-generation iPhone SE on Tuesday during a virtual event on the company’s website, starting at 1 p.m. ET. Apple is also expected to unveil an updated iPad Air with a faster processor as well as 5G, and new computers with faster chips, according to a person familiar with the plans.

The iPhone SE was an early pandemic darling for Apple. Sales of the device approached 25 million, or 12% of the company’s estimated global smartphone shipments, in 2020, according to researcher IDC. Apple doesn’t break out results by iPhone model.

The low-end model, which starts at $399 and comes with the smallest display size of 4.7 inches, fared less well in the past year with the arrival of Apple’s flagship products. Those include the iPhone 12 lineup, which introduced ultrafast 5G to the company’s smartphone offerings for the first time and was given a boost with price breaks from carriers eager to get customers onto the new cellular networks.

Sales of the high-end devices helped propel iPhone sales to a record $192 billion in fiscal 2021 and contributed to the year’s record profit of almost $100 billion. At the same time, shipments of the iPhone SE that lacked 5G fell an estimated 40% in 2021 compared with 2020, according to IDC.

“Obviously, some of the phones that Apple has launched have been really expensive, for the mostly mid- to high-end consumer, so now you get an affordable phone with 5G,”

Samik Chatterjee,

an analyst for

J.P. Morgan,

said in an interview.

Mr. Chatterjee raised his earnings estimates for the fiscal year because of expectations for the iPhone lineup, including his faith in the potential of the SE model to appeal to price-conscious buyers looking for 5G. He is forecasting that the SE version could tally 30 million units sold in the first year and help boost overall iPhone shipments to a record of 250 million.

“That’s what will give investors confidence that Apple can continue to grow iPhone revenues,” he said.

Starting in February, U.S. cellular carriers will begin to shut down 3G. WSJ’s Joanna Stern got an old iPhone 3G and iPhone 4 working on the old network, in order to remember all it did to shape the smartphone revolution. Photo illustration: Preston Jessee for The Wall Street Journal

The iPhone 12—and the iterative iPhone 13 versions introduced last fall—helped fuel renewed interest among Chinese consumers. The iPhone’s strength was aided by the collapse of Huawei Technologies Co.’s smartphone business amid sanctions by the U.S. government. The sanctions stripped Huawei of the ability to use

Alphabet Inc.’s


GOOG 0.23%

Android operating system. In the final three months of last year, the iPhone retook the top spot as the bestselling smartphone in China. Mr. Chatterjee said the SE model could benefit from the China dynamics and the country’s interest in 5G phones.

Other analysts seem to be warming to Apple’s potential this year as well. As recently as late last year, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet predicted flat iPhone sales for the current fiscal year, which ends in September, amid worries that the appeal of the iPhone might have peaked during the year after the big upgrade with 5G technology.

In recent weeks, optimism about the company’s outlook has been growing, aided by stronger-than-expected results for the final three months of last year. Analysts now expect iPhone revenue to rise 5% this fiscal year—after soaring 39% in fiscal 2021.

When the first SE model made its debut in 2016, some analysts said the device could help Apple in markets outside of the U.S. where the iPhone—which can cost more than $1,500—is priced out of reach. Instead, the top three markets for the cheaper device last year were the U.S., Japan and Western Europe, according to IDC.

‘Some of the phones that Apple has launched have been really expensive, for the mostly mid- to high-end consumer, so now you get an affordable phone with 5G.’


— Samik Chatterjee, J.P. Morgan analyst

In China, the SE made up less than 10% of shipments, according to Chiew Le Xuan, an analyst at research firm Canalys. He said the phone struggled against budget-oriented Android rivals and expressed skepticism that the new version would do well in China.

“The iPhone SE third generation may seem like a hit in China due to Apple’s increasing market share and 5G penetration,” he said in an email. “However, according to Canalys data, Chinese consumers are inclined towards phones with a larger display.”

In the U.S., the SE has been a gateway to the Apple brand for owners of less-expensive Android phones. Last year, 26% of SE buyers previously had an Android phone, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners’ surveys of consumers. “IPhone SE has become a sort of entry-level iPhone, mostly because of its price point,” said

Michael Levin,

Consumer Intelligence Research co-founder.

Apple again might benefit from carriers eager to push its latest phones on customers, according to

Cliff Maldonado,

principal analyst for BayStreet Research, which tracks marketing efforts by the wireless-service providers.

The carriers are eager to move customers from 4G to the new faster networks because it is cheaper for them to deliver the same amount of data. Mr. Maldonado forecasts that carriers will reach about 95% of 5G subscribers in mid-2024. 5G has been aimed at improving connections for games and videos.

“The carriers will be happy to push the SE3 over the previous SE2 at roughly the same $400 price point because the SE3 will allow the carrier to support the phone less expensively on 5G than 4G LTE,” he said.

Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Posted on

No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

LOS ANGELES (AP) — There are no known security threats to the Super Bowl, authorities said Tuesday as they outlined the coordinated law-enforcement effort to keep the game at SoFi Stadium and the Los Angeles region safe.

Fans attending the game can expect an enormous police presence at the stadium, which will have a tightly monitored security perimeter. Meanwhile patrol officers, tactical teams, K-9 units and paramedics will be been deployed across Los Angeles County in the run-up to the NFL championship game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said at least 500 members of his department are devoted to safety for the big game, including agents focused on ferreting out cyberthreats and preventing human trafficking.

“We have no information of a specific, credible threat against the Super Bowl,” said Mayorkas. “What this is all about is planning and preparation to prevent any incident from occurring.”

Mayorkas’s department, however, warned that a truck convoy on the order of those clogging central Ottawa, Ontario, and disrupting U.S.-Canadian commerce at a bridge near Detroit could emerge and create problems near the Super Bowl site.

Don’t miss: Homeland Security Department voices concern about Super Bowl and State of the Union disruptions by Canada-style truck convoy

Air Force fighter jets will enforce a temporary flight-restricted zone on Sunday in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies. NORAD earlier in the week scheduled a defense exercise for the airspace over the Inglewood area.

The city police department in Inglewood, where the stadium is located, is the lead local law-enforcement effort. It will coordinate with the Los Angeles Police Department and the sheriff’s department. About 400 deputies were dedicated to the Super Bowl, including extra patrols for the county’s transit system, said Jack Ewell, chief of the sheriff’s Special Operations Division.

Inglewood Police Chief Mark Fronterotta said his officers will focus on preventing fights between fans, after a San Francisco 49ers fan suffered a brain injury during an altercation outside SoFi during the NFC championship game last month. “The parking lots will be extensively covered,” Fronterotta said.

Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said there has been no disorderly behavior at pre–Super Bowl activities at the downtown L.A. Convention Center. The LAPD has canceled some scheduled time off to ensure the department has enough staff for all the week’s events, including a possible victory parade for the Rams, Moore said.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the media on Wednesday on the SoFi Stadium campus in Inglewood, Calif.


Rob Carr/Getty Images

Only small, clear bags will be allowed inside the stadium on game day, though fans are encouraged to bring as little as possible with them.

“If you want to breeze through security, less is more. The less you bring, the faster you go through security,” said Cathy Lanier, the NFL’s chief security officer.

Security measures extend to the skies, too. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, known as NORAD, planned a defense exercise on Tuesday for the airspace over greater Inglewood. On Sunday, U.S. Air Force fighter jets will enforce the temporary flight-restricted zone in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies.

The FAA warned that drone operators who fly unmanned aircraft into the restricted area could face large fines and potential criminal prosecution.

MarketWatch contributed.