Tag: Rainfall

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Event Briefing – Excess Rainfall – Covered Area Rainfall Events – Belize – June 10 2022 – Belize

Event Briefing - Excess Rainfall - Covered Area Rainfall Events - Belize - June 10 2022 - Belize

1 INTRODUCTION

In the period between May 31st and June 2nd, 2022, the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Agatha generated adverse atmospheric conditions that caused moderate to heavy rainfall over several regions of Belize.

This event briefing describes the impact of rainfall on Belize, which was associated with a Covered Area Rainfall Event (CARE), starting on May 31st and ending on June 2 nd 2022. The Rainfall Index Loss (RIL) was below the attachment point of the Excess Rainfall policy for Belize and therefore no payout is due to the Government of Belize.

Neither Belize nor any of the other CCRIF members experienced tropical-storm-force winds from Tropical Cyclone Agatha, and therefore, a tropical cyclone event briefing was not issued for this event.

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El Nino may trigger frequent extreme weather events from 2040s: Study

El Nino may trigger frequent extreme weather events from 2040s: Study

In less than two decades from now, extreme weather events like intense heat waves and rainfall events triggered by El Nino are set to increase, a new study has shown.

El Nino is the unusual warming of ocean waters along the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is known to affect the monsoon and cause intense heat and droughts globally. In recent years, the 2015 El Nino event has significantly affected India’s rainfall, crop output and, thus, the overall economy.

In this study, researchers from the University of Exeter, UK have tried to calculate the ‘time of emergence’ of changes along the tropical Pacific Ocean under four possible carbon emissions scenarios. They concluded that drastic rainfall changes were on the cards starting in the 2040s.

“When looking at changes in El Nino rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered,” the study published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Nature Climate Change noted.

Normally, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observes a weaker monsoon over India during El Nino years, even though the Met agency says that there is no one-on-one association between the two.

During 1951 – 2021, 15 years have been dominated by El Nino, including 2015, 2009, 2004, 2002, 1997, 1991, 1987, 1982, 1972, 1969, 1965, 1963, 1957, 1953 and 1951. Of these, nine summer monsoon seasons over the country recorded deficient rain by more than 90 per cent (of the Long Period Average or LPA of 88cm for the country for June-September). During one of the strongest El Nino years in 1997, however, India’s seasonal rain was over 100 per cent of the LPA, the IMD data showed.

Earlier this month, the IMD said that a weak La Nina – the opposite phenomenon of El Nino when the equatorial Pacific remains cooler than normal – has been shown to favour Indian summer monsoons. As per the latest forecasts, the existing La Nina will turn the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral sometime during the upcoming monsoon season.

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Since 2015, very heavy rainfall events have nearly tripled in Kerala: IMD data

Since 2015, very heavy rainfall events have nearly tripled in Kerala: IMD data

Forty-three incidences of very heavy rainfall were registered in Kerala in 2015, of which 19 were in June.

Nearly a three-fold increase was witnessed in incidences of very heavy rainfall across districts of Kerala since 2015, according to data maintained by the India Meteorological Department. While the coastal state experienced 43 very heavy rainfall events in 2015, the number of such extreme weather events increased to 115 in 2021, the weather office data showed. Very heavy rainfall events are categorised as days that experience rainfall between 115.6 and 204.4 mm.

Forty-three incidences of very heavy rainfall were registered in 2015, of which 19 were in June; year 2016 registered 23, of which 16 alone were in June; 2017 registered 38 such events, with September witnessing 14 incidences.

The year 2018 registered 163 such events, with August recording 74 such events, June 35 and June 34. Next year, there were 117 incidences, with 71 being registered in August and 22 in July.

In 2020, 110 events of very heavy rainfall were witnessed, 40 being recorded in August, followed by 26 in September and 20 in July. The year 2021 recorded 115 such incidences, of which 51 were recorded in May alone.

“Frequency of extreme precipitation events may increase all over India, and more prominently so over the central and southern parts in the near future as a response to enhanced warming,” Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh had said in a written reply in the Lok Sabha to a question posed by Congress member Shashi Tharoor.

In Kerala, the total incidences of heavy rain (64.5-115.5 mm per day) in 2015 were 360 across 10 months, with the maximum being recorded in June (116), followed by July (61).

In 2016, a total of 225 events were registered, with the maximum in June at 108, followed by 44 in July. The year 2017 again saw incidences of heavy rain climbing to 360, with the maximum 114 in June, followed by 98 in September, and 48 in August.

In 2018, the number of heavy rainfall events increased to 607, with July recording the maximum at 198, followed by 147 in June and 144 in August. In 2019, the total number of such events was 528, with 184 being witnessed in August alone, followed by 123 in July and 101 in October, respectively.

Kerala witnessed 484 incidences of heavy rainfall in 2020, with August recording the maximum (132), followed by September (124). In 2021, there were 574 such events with the maximum being recorded in May (130), followed by October (112 days) and July 107 days.

The state witnessed extremely heavy rainfall (more than 204.4 mm per day) on one day each in 2015 and 2016, and two days in 2017. The year 2018 witnessed 32 such days, of which 25 were in August . In 2019, 33 such days were recorded with 29 being in August. The number of days when there was extremely heavy rain in 2020 was eight and in 2021, it was 11.