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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Fed Rate Decision; Australia Jobs Report; BOE Rate Decision; BOJ Rate Decision; Eurozone Inflation Rate

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Fed Speeches; Canada, Eurozone, Japan, New Zealand Inflation Rates

FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The Fed rate decision on Wednesday will likely keep volatility elevated throughout the week.
  • The BOJ rate decision on Friday has increased importance now that JGB 10-year yields have started to break through the 0.25% threshold.
  • Eurozone inflation data on Friday may only deepen concerns about fragmentation across European bond markets.

For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

06/15 WEDNESDAY | 18:00, 18:30 GMT | USD Federal Reserve Rate Decision & Press Conference

Rates markets have evolved sharply in recent days, following the release of the May US inflation rate (CPI) on Friday. One week ago, 148-bps were priced-in through the end of 2022; at the start of this week, 201-bps are discounted through the end of the year. Markets believe the Fed will raise rates by 50-bps at their June meeting, but there are rising odds that a 75-bps or even a 100-bps rate hike will be levied. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be critically important, as recent data will likely provoke a significant change in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as well. Heightened volatility across asset classes up to and through Wednesday afternoon should be anticipated.

06/16 THURSDAY | 01:30 GMT | AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAY)

The Australian economy continues to add jobs at a relatively torrid clip, putting more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates rapidly. According to a Bloomberg News survey, Australia added +25K jobs in May, dropping its unemployment rate from 3.9% to 3.8% in the process. The relatively good news may come at a needed moment for the Australian Dollar, which has been sucked into the maelstrom of a broadly risk-off market. The data will only further encourage the RBA to raise rates quickly in the second half of 2022.

06/16 THURSDAY | 11:00 GMT | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

Despite BOE policymakers signaling at the May rate decision that they are equally concerned with downside risks to growth as they are with upside risks to inflation, rates markets have had a rethink in recent weeks. Since mid-May, amid signs that the rises in food and energy prices won’t relent anytime soon, rates markets have dragged forward BOE rate hike expectations for the remainder of 2022, a much needed source of support for the British Pound.

UK overnight index swaps (OIS) are discounting a 117% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in June (a 100% chance of a 25-bps hike and a 17% chance of a 50-bps hike). Rates markets are still pricing in a 25-bps rate hike at every meeting for the rest of 2022. But there has been a subtle shift: it’s a faster pace than what was expected in mid-May: the expected terminal rate for the BOE in 2022 now sits at 2.450%, up from 2.099% approximately three weeks ago.

06/17 FRIDAY | 03:00 GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

Bank of Japan rate decisions usually don’t warrant much consideration, but this time is different as the Japanese Yen has hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since 1998: markets are starting to break the BOJ’s commitment to keeping the JGB 10-year yield capped at 0.25%. The forthcoming rate decision is loaded with risk, as one of two things can happen: one, the BOJ can recommit to keeping yields capped, which means the Yen will take another leg lower; or, two, the BOJ throws in the towel on its QQE with yield curve control policy, which could unleash a rampant rebound by the Yen. Regardless of the outcome, fireworks are expected.

06/17 FRIDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR Inflation Rate (MAY)

The European Central Bank’s June rate decision proved to be a bit of a communication error, with ECB President Christine Lagarde fumbling questions on how bond market fragmentation will be handled in the coming months. But the die has been cast, so to speak: the final May Eurozone inflation rate (HICP) is due in at +8.1% y/y from +7.4% y/y, and the core reading is expected at +3.8% y/y from +3.5% y/y. What was previously a source of strength for the Euro – rising short-end bond yields across the Eurozone – has now turned into a source of weakness – rising long-end bond yields in the periphery – that could raise questions of fiscal stability in countries like Greece, Italy, and Spain.

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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: UK No-Confidence Vote; RBA Rate Decision; ECB Rate Decision; Canada Jobs Report; US Inflation Rate

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK No-Confidence Vote; RBA Rate Decision; ECB Rate Decision; Canada Jobs Report; US Inflation Rate

FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The RBA rate decision on Tuesday will produce another rate hike, while the ECB rate decision on Thursday will pave the path to one.
  • The May Canada jobs report is likely to produce another strong reading, giving the BOC more ammunition for further rate increases.
  • Incoming US inflation data are likely to only show modest signs of disinflation, potentially revitalizing Fed rate hike odds and thus helping the US Dollar.

For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

06/06 MONDAY | 21:00 GMT | GBP Boris Johnson No-Confidence Vote

A series of missteps and public embarrassments – from ‘Partygate’ to being booed at a Jubilee event – UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a snap no-confidence vote late in the day on Monday. Prediction markets suggest that Johnson will survive the vote, but the margin of victory is key: while only 180 votes are needed to continue on as prime minister, anything fewer than 260 may be considered a sign of weakness. With a cost of living crisis growing day-by-day and by-elections showing the Tory party falling out of favor, Johnson’s time as prime minister may be running out, regardless of Monday’s outcome.

06/07 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA surprised markets with a 25-bps rate hike in May, eschewing conventional wisdom that policymakers would wait until after Australian federal elections to begin their rate hike cycle. But with the Australian unemployment rate at multi-decade lows – below the RBA’s projected level for year-end 2022 – as well as inflation rates pressing higher, the RBA has decided that swifter action is needed. Another 25-bps rate hike is anticipated (bringing the main rate from 0.35% to 0.60%) and already discounted by markets. What matters to the Australian Dollar more than a rate hike is what the RBA says about the future: how many more rate hikes can be expected over the next few months. Forward guidance is key if the Aussie is going to continue its recent rebound.

06/09 THURSDAY | 11:45, 12:30 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision & Press Conference

The gap between the ECB and other major central banks’ rate hike odds that defined much of 2022 continues to close. Rates markets continue to price in the first 10-bps rate hike in July, after the ECB announces an end to its asset purchase program at its June meeting this week (when new Staff Economic Projections (SEP) are released).But thanks to multi-decade highs in inflation pressures across the Eurozone (including in the bloc’s largest economy, Germany), rates markets are now discounting a 50-bps rate hike in December 2022, in what would be the largest single-meeting increase in rates since 2000.Elevated ECB rate hike odds continue to be reflected in the short-end of various European sovereign debt yields. It remains the case that rising short-end bond yields should prove supportive of the Euro.

06/10 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAY)

The Canadian economy continues to chug along, benefiting more than other developed economies from the recent surge in energy prices (energy accounts for roughly 11% of Canadian GDP). While inflation is a problem, the strength of the Canadian labor market is giving the BOC some reassurance that it can continue to raise rates without derailing the economic recovery. A Bloomberg News survey sees the May Canada employment change at +30K from +15K in April, with the Canadian unemployment rate on hold at 5.6%. These would be strong enough data points for the BOC to proceed with another 25-bps rate hike when it releases its next decision on July 13.

06/10 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Inflation Rate (CPI) (MAY)

Headline US inflation rates will remain stubbornly high, even as core rates show signs of disinflation, thanks to ongoing elevation in food and energy prices. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the May US inflation rate is due in at +8.3% y/y, unchanged from April, while the core inflation rate is expected to subside slightly to +5.9% y/y from +6.2% y/y.

While 50-bps rate hikes are priced-in for both June and July, rates markets are slowly coming around to the idea that another 50-bps rate hike will be levied in September, when the Fed meets after the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.Rates markets are unconvinced that much more tightening will occur thereafter; only 148-bps worth of hikes are priced in through the end of 2022, potentially leaving the US Dollar at a relative disadvantage as other central banks begin to ramp up their fights against multi-decade highs in inflation pressures.

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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

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Adverse event rate after THA similar for female, male surgeons

Adverse event rate after THA similar for female, male surgeons
surgeon
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The rate of adverse events within 90 days for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) does not differ according to whether the surgeon performing the procedure is female or male, according to a study published online May 24 in the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery.

Per Jolbäck, R.N., Ph.D., from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, and colleagues conducted a retrospective study involving primary THAs performed for osteoarthritis between 2008 and 2016 at 10 hospitals in Western Sweden. Adverse events were retrieved from the regional patient register, and the impact of surgeon sex on adverse events was examined. Data were included for 11,993 primary THAs, performed by 200 surgeons (17.5 percent women).

The researchers found that the proportions of adverse events within 90 days were similar for female and male surgeons (6 and 7 percent, respectively). When all surgeons (both attendings and residents) were included in the analysis, no association was observed between surgeon sex and adverse events (adjusted odds ratio, 0.72; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.00). In a sensitivity analysis including only attendings, the results were similar (adjusted odds ratio, 0.88; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.60 to 1.29).

“We therefore conclude that there is no association between the rate of adverse events within 90 days postoperatively and the sex of the surgeon,” the authors write.

One author disclosed financial ties to the medical device industry.

No adverse outcomes seen with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy

More information:
The Influence of Surgeon Sex on Adverse Events Following Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty

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Adverse event rate after THA similar for female, male surgeons (2022, June 3)
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Event Industry Is Poised To Grow At A Rate Of 25-30% In 2023: Deepak Choudhary

Event Industry Is Poised To Grow At A Rate Of 25-30% In 2023: Deepak Choudhary

Mr Deepak Choudhary is magnate of Indian Entertainment, Media and Education eco-system. He has earned the name of Serial Event Entrepreneur. He is a Chief Mentor of Event Capital, EVENTFAQS, Whistling Woods International School of Event Management, Laqshya Live Experiences, Live 101. He has also co-authored the book “Staged”.

In an exclusive chat with Outlook magazine, Mr Choudhary shares his views on the industry which is emerging from the pandemic upheaval. 

Excerpts

Please share your take on the evolution of the event industry in India

During the FY 2019- 2020, we were operating in an Rs. 10,000 crore industry which primarily included the events hosted by the corporate world, award functions, concerts, and likewise. The industry was experiencing a steady growth rate of 12 to 15%. However, post the pandemic, the entire ecosystem has changed. Over the last two years, owing to the pandemic, the size of the event industry has shrunk to a mere 20 percent of the original size. We will be back to normal by the year 2022 or even 2023 where the events industry is expected to witness a growth rate of 25-30% in an ideal scenario. 

The events industry has been hard-hit by the pandemic? In your opinion, what are the ways by which the industry can overcome the losses?

Unfortunately, many professionals have lost their jobs during the pandemic, as many companies reduced the size of the workforce to overcome the losses. With physical events being reduced, the companies started hosting virtual events to connect with their target audience. However, I am optimistic, considering the changing requirements and the new forms of events have aroused, growth in the coming years will help people to reduce the losses of the past. 

How is the curriculum offered at Whistling Woods School Event Management and Experiential Marketing different?

While a lot of other event schools focus on production, operation and logistics, Whistling Woods brings in the expertise of the overall media ecosystem for the students to benefit from. The infrastructure and the world-renowned technology offered to the students give our school an edge over others. The academic ecosystem is positively reinforced as it is run by accomplished industry professionals, so much so that every senior industry professional is involved in the curriculum-making process. In addition, the Whistling Woods advisory board adds value that has helped us design the correct blend of theoretical and practical knowledge for the students. The curriculum is designed in the four areas of specialization which are business development, creative concepts, production operations, and technical knowhow. The blend of these makes the students brand solution experts.

How do the students benefit post-completion of the degrees?

The courses are developed in such a way that the mentors ensure that our students get appropriate jobs in their respective domains. They are offered internships that give them a fair understanding of the industry. As the students graduate from the institute as professionals, they are inducted by various advertising agencies, event management companies and media conglomerates. Professionals are always in demand as organizations are on the lookout for extraordinary talent.

Any parting thoughts?

There is no doubt that the industry has been adversely impacted, however, it is important to highlight that the consumer desperation of being in the physical event is high. For example, the hospitality industry has shown growth and people have started traveling owing to which the demand for hotel rooms has gone up, Similarly, the demand for the event industry is expecting a higher growth.

Students who are keen to make a career the Event Management will be a great choice. Parting thought would be to advise the aspirants to be passionate about their career choice and be part of the ever-evolving Events industry ecosystem.

 

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New Post-Marketing Safety Analysis Shows Rate of Hearing-Related Events Associated with TEPEZZA® (teprotumumab-trbw) Comparable with Clinical Trial Observations

New Post-Marketing Safety Analysis Shows Rate of Hearing-Related Events Associated with TEPEZZA® (teprotumumab-trbw) Comparable with Clinical Trial Observations

DUBLIN–()–Horizon Therapeutics plc (Nasdaq: HZNP) today announced results from a new post-marketing safety analysis of hearing events associated with TEPEZZA for the treatment of Thyroid Eye Disease (TED). These findings, along with data on the sustainability of response to TEPEZZA, were presented at the 48th Annual Meeting of the North American Neuro-Ophthalmology Society (NANOS 2022), Feb. 12-17, in Austin, Texas. TEPEZZA is the first and only medicine approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of TED – a serious, progressive and potentially vision-threatening rare autoimmune disease.1

Since the FDA approval in 2020, Horizon has conducted post-marketing monitoring to understand the overall safety profile of TEPEZZA, including hearing-related events. Among the thousands of patients included in this 19-month analysis (Jan. 2020 – Aug. 2021), approximately 10% of all cases reported to the safety database have included a hearing-related event. The most frequently reported hearing event was hypoacusis (reduction in hearing), followed by tinnitus (ringing in the ears). The mean age of the patient, where known, was 59.3 years. No new safety concerns were observed in the post-marketing database.2

This is comparable with what was seen in the pooled OPTIC Phase 3 and OPTIC-X open-label extension trials for TEPEZZA. Hearing-related adverse events were reported in 9.5% (8/84) of patients treated with TEPEZZA, which were mild or moderate in severity, versus 0% of patients who received placebo. Adverse events experienced in the clinical trials were manageable, with few discontinuations or therapy interruptions.3,4

“The majority of hearing-related adverse events in the pivotal trials and post-approval have been mild to moderate and reversible, but as with any medicine, it is important to monitor patients,” said Kimberly Cockerham, M.D., adjunct clinical associate professor, Department of Ophthalmology, Stanford University School of Medicine, and a primary author of the report. “Notably, we continue to see high patient adherence to TEPEZZA, with more than 90% of patients completing their full course of treatment in the clinical studies and post-approval. This speaks to the favorable benefit-risk profile of TEPEZZA for people living with Thyroid Eye Disease.”

A separate analysis presented at NANOS 2022 examined the sustainability of response to TEPEZZA over the follow-up periods from the Phase 2 and OPTIC Phase 3 clinical trials and the OPTIC-X open-label extension study. A total of 121 patients were analyzed, with 9 patients receiving additional medications and/or surgery during the follow-up periods. Of those with data available, the majority of patients treated with TEPEZZA were proptosis, diplopia and European Group on Graves’ Orbitopathy (EUGOGO) composite outcome responders up to 51 weeks after their last infusion.5

“Managing the disabling symptoms of Thyroid Eye Disease can be difficult for patients, both physically and emotionally, and before TEPEZZA, there was a significant unmet medical need for an effective treatment,” said Jeffrey W. Sherman, M.D., FACP, executive vice president, chief medical officer, Horizon. “Ongoing research reinforces the significant impact TEPEZZA can have on people living with this devastating disease. We are committed to continuing our research to support a positive patient experience with this important medicine.”

About Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)

TED is a serious, progressive and potentially vision-threatening rare autoimmune disease.1 TED often occurs in people living with Graves’ disease, but is a distinct disease that is caused by autoantibodies activating an IGF-1R-mediated signaling complex on cells within the retro-orbital space.6,7 This leads to a cascade of negative effects, which may cause long-term, irreversible damage. TED begins with an acute (active) phase where inflammatory signs and symptoms, such as eye pain, swelling, proptosis (eye bulging) and diplopia (double vision), progress over time.1,8 The disease then enters a chronic phase where inflammation is no longer present or has markedly diminished, but significant signs and symptoms may remain. As TED progresses, the serious damage it can cause includes proptosis (eye bulging), strabismus (misalignment of the eyes) and diplopia (double vision) – and in some cases can lead to blindness.8,9

About TEPEZZA

INDICATION

TEPEZZA is indicated for the treatment of Thyroid Eye Disease.

IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION

Warnings and Precautions

Infusion Reactions: TEPEZZA may cause infusion reactions. Infusion reactions have been reported in approximately 4% of patients treated with TEPEZZA. Reported infusion reactions have usually been mild or moderate in severity. Signs and symptoms may include transient increases in blood pressure, feeling hot, tachycardia, dyspnea, headache and muscular pain. Infusion reactions may occur during an infusion or within 1.5 hours after an infusion. In patients who experience an infusion reaction, consideration should be given to premedicating with an antihistamine, antipyretic, or corticosteroid and/or administering all subsequent infusions at a slower infusion rate.

Preexisting Inflammatory Bowel Disease: TEPEZZA may cause an exacerbation of preexisting inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Monitor patients with IBD for flare of disease. If IBD exacerbation is suspected, consider discontinuation of TEPEZZA.

Hyperglycemia: Increased blood glucose or hyperglycemia may occur in patients treated with TEPEZZA. In clinical trials, 10% of patients (two-thirds of whom had preexisting diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance) experienced hyperglycemia. Hyperglycemic events should be managed with medications for glycemic control, if necessary. Monitor patients for elevated blood glucose and symptoms of hyperglycemia while on treatment with TEPEZZA. Patients with preexisting diabetes should be under appropriate glycemic control before receiving TEPEZZA.

Adverse Reactions

The most common adverse reactions (incidence ≥5% and greater than placebo) are muscle spasm, nausea, alopecia, diarrhea, fatigue, hyperglycemia, hearing impairment, dysgeusia, headache, dry skin, and menstrual disorders.

Please see Full Prescribing Information or visit TEPEZZAhcp.com for more information.

About Horizon

Horizon is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of medicines that address critical needs for people impacted by rare, autoimmune and severe inflammatory diseases. Our pipeline is purposeful: We apply scientific expertise and courage to bring clinically meaningful therapies to patients. We believe science and compassion must work together to transform lives. For more information on how we go to incredible lengths to impact lives, visit www.horizontherapeutics.com and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.

References

  1. Barrio-Barrio J, et al. Graves’ Ophthalmopathy: VISA versus EUGOGO Classification, Assessment, and Management. Journal of Ophthalmopathy. 2015;2015:249125.
  2. Cockerham, K, et al. Post-Marketing Surveillance of Hearing-related Adverse Events in Patients With TED Treated With Teprotumumab. Poster session presented at: 48th Annual Meeting of the North American Neuro-Ophthalmology Society (NANOS); 2022 Feb. 12-17; Austin, TX.
  3. Smith TJ, et al. Teprotumumab for Thyroid-Associated Ophthalmology. N Engl J Med. 2017;376:1748-1761.
  4. Douglas RS, et al. Teprotumumab for the Treatment of Active Thyroid Eye Disease. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:341-352.
  5. Subramanian, P, et al. Sustainability of Teprotumumab Efficacy in Thyroid Eye Disease. Paper presented at: 48th Annual Meeting of the North American Neuro-Ophthalmology Society (NANOS); 2022 Feb. 12-17; Austin, TX.
  6. Weightman DR, et al. Autoantibodies to IGF-1 Binding Sites in Thyroid Associated Ophthalmopathy. Autoimmunity. 1993;16(4):251–257.
  7. Pritchard J, et al. Immunoglobulin Activation of T Cell Chemoattractant Expression in Fibroblasts from Patients with Graves’ Disease Is Mediated Through the Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Receptor Pathway. J Immunol. 2003;170:6348-6354.
  8. Bartalena L, Kahaly GJ, Baldeschi L, et al. The 2021 European Group on Graves’ Orbitopathy (EUGOGO) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Medical Management of Graves’ Orbitopathy [published online ahead of print]. Eur J Endocrinol. 2021 Jul 1:EJE-21-0479.R1. doi: 10.1530/EJE-21-0479.
  9. McKeag D, et al. Clinical features of dysthyroid optic neuropathy: a European Group on Graves’ Orbitopathy (EUGOGO) survey. Br J Ophthalmol. 2007;91:455-458.