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Why the NFL Draft is one of the few sports events where bettors have been beating sportsbooks

Why the NFL Draft is one of the few sports events where bettors have been beating sportsbooks

There’s a saying in gambling that the “house always wins,” meaning that in most cases casinos and betting operators have better odds to win than bettors.

That philosophy also applies to sports betting where sportsbooks typically make profits on events ranging from the Super Bowl to March Madness to the MLB playoffs. One major sports-related event, however, is different. It’s the one event where bettors may be able to outmaneuver the sportsbooks: the NFL Draft.

As ESPN has reported, gamblers have been getting the better of sportsbooks on the draft for years, but continue to offer the service in order to satisfy customer demand.

Over $20 million was bet on last year’s draft, with more likely to be wagered this year. Bettors can wager on who will be selected No. 1 overall, which player will be the first wide receiver taken, and which players will be selected in the top 10 — there are hundreds of available bets such as these on legal U.S. sportsbooks like DraftKings
DKNG,
+1.66%

and the Caesars
CZR,
+5.05%
.

But why is the draft unique? It’s mainly because in most cases, sportsbooks have more information than bettors. They have enormous databases on every player of every team, team trends, and tendencies of coaches and referees, among other things. But the draft is not a live sports game, you’re betting on people making decisions in a draft room.

“For instance in the Super Bowl, we have so much data, there’s so much information, that we’re so confident that the Rams should be 4.5 point favorites over the Bengals,”Jay Croucher, Head of Trading at the PointsBet sportsbook, said during a Wednesday interview with NBC. But he added, about the NFL Draft: “This kind of market, I really can’t tell you with much confidence who should go number one, or who will go number one.”

For once, sportsbooks and bettors are on a level playing field. Sportsbooks and bettors don’t have to forecast complex games with several dozen people involved, they simply need to learn the preferences of a General Manager, the person who makes a team’s draft pick. And one way to do that, is through information.

Here’s an example of how bettors can do well wagering on the NFL Draft. In the days leading up to last year’s draft, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that “most people” believe the Atlanta Falcons will select tight end Kyle Pitts at pick No. 4. Rapoport is one of the plugged-in analysts when it comes to NFL news, and has millions of followers on Twitter, so when he tweets information like that, the betting markets move.

Nine days before the draft, the odds that the Falcons would select a tight end was +160, but on the morning of the draft it was -250, representing a massive implied probability change from 38.% to 71.4% in a matter of days, according to odds from William Hill. If you were able to make that bet fast enough, you were able to cash in when the Falcons indeed chose Kyle Pitts a little over a week later. You can find a further explanation of how betting odds work here.

You didn’t need a giant database or tracking data to be able to bet on Kyle Pitts to be selected there, you just needed to be following Rapoport on Twitter.

Coucher conceded that sportsbooks basically rely on the same information as public bettors, indicating the draft is one big probabilistic guess.

“Alleged text messages from someone who might be a cousin of someone who might work at the Jags (the team selecting at No. 1 in 2022), this is the stuff that drives the market…its mock drafts, its sources, its things that get posted on Twitter,”
TWTR,
+0.97%

Coucher went on to say.

Last year was the third time that Americans could legally wager on the NFL Draft — the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, allowing individual states to legislate sports betting — and bookmakers readily admit that they don’t always make money accepting bets on the NFL Draft.

“From a bookmaker’s perspective, handicapping the NFL Draft is one of the most difficult things that we do,” Johnny Avello, the Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, wrote to MarketWatch in an email. “In this particular instance, I would move the needle towards the bettor. It’s been tough for us to make money in the draft.”

See also: What time does the NFL Draft start? Here’s what you need to know about how to watch the 2022 NFL Draft

As mentioned above, quick reactions to breaking news from people who frequently talk with people who help run NFL teams can spread fast, but bettors who can take advantage of that information can get a leg up on the sportsbooks.

In sports competitions, chance and perhaps more accurately randomness can have a huge impact. Whether it’s a bad shooting night for the best shooter in an NBA game, or a weird bounce of a the prolate-spheroid-shaped football during a large scrum, randomness is everywhere. While some aspects of randomness exist in the NFL Draft, wagering on the latest news you saw on Twitter before the sportsbooks have time to change their betting lines can be your best opportunity to win, Croucher said.

“This is the nature of the draft, these markets, they are pretty vulnerable, and you can beat them.”

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Mikaela Shiffrin Skids Out Again in Final Beijing Olympics Individual Event

Mikaela Shiffrin Skids Out Again in Final Beijing Olympics Individual Event

YANQING, China—Mikaela Shiffrin skidded out of the the third of her five races at the Beijing Olympics on Thursday, the alpine combined, meaning the U.S. skiing superstar won’t win an individual medal at these Games.

Shiffrin passed the fifth gate—where she had skied out in the first two races at these Olympics, then had actual nightmares about it as she slept—but faltered a few gates later. 

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A Russian Doping Test Engulfs the Beijing Olympics’ Marquee Figure Skating Events

A Russian Doping Test Engulfs the Beijing Olympics’ Marquee Figure Skating Events

BEIJING—The Winter Olympics were plunged into drama on Friday over a Russian doping case that has rocked the marquee figure skating events here and pitted Russia—already under sanction over state-sponsored doping—against international sports organizations in a court battle that could drag on several more days. 

The International Testing Agency, which oversees Olympic drug-testing, ended days of speculation on Friday when it said that Kamila Valieva, a teenage Russian star and jumping phenom, had a positive result for a banned substance in late December. 

The test sets up a familiar battle that pits Russia against much of the rest of the global sports community over doping violations. Russia is already banned from international sports competition for its epic state-sponsored doping scheme at the 2014 Sochi Olympics. 

The new case puts one of skating’s most supremely talented athletes, the 15-year-old Valieva, at the center of a maelstrom—just after she had won one gold medal and just before she is heavily favored to win another by performing as many as three quadruple jumps in a single program.

It leaves open the question of who won the coveted team title: the Russian Olympic Committee, or perhaps second-place-finisher the United States. And it ensures that the run-up to the women’s singles competition next week—perhaps the most high-profile event of the Games—will be engulfed in legal action.

The ROC took first in the figure skating team event.



Photo:

sebastien bozon/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The drama began not at the Beijing Olympics, but at a domestic competition in Russia at the end of 2021.

A testing sample collected by the Russian Anti-Doping Agency at the Russian Figure Skating Championships in St. Petersburg in late December was returned on Feb. 8 showing that Valieva had tested positive for trimetazidine, a heart drug, the ITA said. 

The drug is typically used to treat coronary heart disease and is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency as the drug can also increase blood flow, which is likely related to increased cardiac output. 

The result arrived one day after the 15-year-old clinched victory for the ROC in the figure skating team event on Monday, in which she also became the first female skater to land a quadruple jump at the Olympic Games in a moment that awed fans around the world. 

Valieva was briefly suspended by the Russian anti-doping agency, and didn’t practice the next day, before the agency overturned the suspension. She is due to compete again as gold-medal favorite in the women’s singles event Feb. 15.

But her return is far from assured. The International Olympic Committee, the World Anti-Doping Agency and International Skating Union indicated Friday they would appeal the Russian agency’s decision.

Now it will fall to the Court of Arbitration for Sport to determine whether Valieva can compete in the women’s event and whether the ROC will lose the prestigious team title.

The case raises questions about the arrival of the test results at the worst possible moment for all competitors in one of the Olympics’ most popular and high-profile sports. It also comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West, as international sports organizations face renewed questions over the robustness of Russia’s anti-doping stance, and concerns grow around the welfare of child athletes, in particular. 

Technically, Russia isn’t even at the Olympics. The international ban means its athletes compete not under the Russian name and flag, but that of the Russian Olympic Committee. Russian officials have previously called the doping suspension politically motivated. And international sports bodies have been accused of being timid in the face of repeated rule violations.

The ROC on Friday said it would take “comprehensive measures” to protect the team and keep its gold medal in the figure skating competition. It also suggested a possible conspiracy against the Russian team, questioning the timing of the test result’s arrival—the day after their team won gold in Beijing—and that it took some 45 days to analyze it.

“It’s very likely that someone held this probe until the end of the team figure skating tournament,” said Stanislav Pozdnyakov, the ROC president. The ITA declined to comment. 

The Kremlin, meanwhile, offered its “absolutely unlimited” support to Valieva. On Friday, she skated through an official practice session with multiple falls in a run-through of her free program, then hid her face inside a hooded sweatshirt while passing reporters on the way out. 

“We say to Kamila: ‘Kamila, don’t hide your face, you are a Russian woman, walk proudly everywhere and, most importantly, speak up and defeat everyone,” presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, cited by state newswire TASS.

The matter is no less weighty to officials in the U.S. and elsewhere. 

“For us, this is less about medals and more about protecting the sanctity of fair and clean sport and holding those accountable that don’t uphold the Olympic values,” said Kate Hartman, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee.

Travis Tygart, the head of the U.S. anti-doping agency, also criticized the delay in getting Valieva’s result. 

“It’s a catastrophic failure of the system,” he said. “It’s an awful set of facts that easily could have been prevented.”

The accredited Swedish laboratory that handled Valieva’s Dec. 25 test said it couldn’t comment on a pending case.

And the IOC insisted that it had acted appropriately with regards to ROC and all its competitors. 

“We don’t take mass actions against groups of people but against individuals,” IOC spokesman Mark Adams told reporters Friday. “We wouldn’t try a whole class of people and chuck them out.”

“The central principle of the IOC is that we have to be politically neutral,” he said. “We don’t bow to any side in these cases.”

Valieva’s case highlights a structural problem with doping in Russia, dating back to Soviet times, said Lukas Aubin, a researcher at Paris-Nanterre University who focuses on Russian sports and politics.

“The problem is with the structure of the sporting system in Russia where people at the top are asking for better results and those underneath have to deliver, like a pyramid,” Aubin said. “They are fighting against themselves and against their history.”

Trimetazidine, the drug at the center of the Valieva case, was unlikely to have a therapeutic use for a young Olympian, said Aaron Baggish, director of the cardiovascular performance program at Massachusetts General Hospital. 

“It is a metabolic modulator thought to increase blood flow to the heart and perhaps improve metabolic efficiency in heart muscle cells,” he said, adding that he believed use as a performance enhancing drug “is uncommon but it is out there.”

Kamila Valieva of the Russian Olympic Committee with teammates and coaches during a training session.



Photo:

EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA/REUTERS

The Russian Figure Skating Federation said Friday that it “has no doubts about [Valieva’s] honesty and purity.”

The case was further complicated by Valieva’s age. Being 15, she counts as a “Protected Person” under the World Anti-Doping Code, which the ITA said had delayed the public disclosure. But with speculation in the media running rampant and several outlets naming Valieva, the organization said it decided to publish more information on the situation. 

Valieva, in her first season of being old enough to compete at the senior level, has also emerged as the leader of a pack of talented Russian skaters capable of sweeping the podium by unleashing a slew of exceptionally difficult jumps. She set new highest scores for the women and broke them herself several times during the current season. 

That group, almost all of whom are coached by Eteri Tutberidze of Moscow, have achieved extraordinary success through their technical prowess. But their slight frames and short competitive careers have also drawn scrutiny of the physical and mental toll on athletes who have often retired before they are 18.

Write to Louise Radnofsky at louise.radnofsky@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

What to Know About the Beijing Winter Olympics

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No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

LOS ANGELES (AP) — There are no known security threats to the Super Bowl, authorities said Tuesday as they outlined the coordinated law-enforcement effort to keep the game at SoFi Stadium and the Los Angeles region safe.

Fans attending the game can expect an enormous police presence at the stadium, which will have a tightly monitored security perimeter. Meanwhile patrol officers, tactical teams, K-9 units and paramedics will be been deployed across Los Angeles County in the run-up to the NFL championship game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said at least 500 members of his department are devoted to safety for the big game, including agents focused on ferreting out cyberthreats and preventing human trafficking.

“We have no information of a specific, credible threat against the Super Bowl,” said Mayorkas. “What this is all about is planning and preparation to prevent any incident from occurring.”

Mayorkas’s department, however, warned that a truck convoy on the order of those clogging central Ottawa, Ontario, and disrupting U.S.-Canadian commerce at a bridge near Detroit could emerge and create problems near the Super Bowl site.

Don’t miss: Homeland Security Department voices concern about Super Bowl and State of the Union disruptions by Canada-style truck convoy

Air Force fighter jets will enforce a temporary flight-restricted zone on Sunday in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies. NORAD earlier in the week scheduled a defense exercise for the airspace over the Inglewood area.

The city police department in Inglewood, where the stadium is located, is the lead local law-enforcement effort. It will coordinate with the Los Angeles Police Department and the sheriff’s department. About 400 deputies were dedicated to the Super Bowl, including extra patrols for the county’s transit system, said Jack Ewell, chief of the sheriff’s Special Operations Division.

Inglewood Police Chief Mark Fronterotta said his officers will focus on preventing fights between fans, after a San Francisco 49ers fan suffered a brain injury during an altercation outside SoFi during the NFC championship game last month. “The parking lots will be extensively covered,” Fronterotta said.

Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said there has been no disorderly behavior at pre–Super Bowl activities at the downtown L.A. Convention Center. The LAPD has canceled some scheduled time off to ensure the department has enough staff for all the week’s events, including a possible victory parade for the Rams, Moore said.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the media on Wednesday on the SoFi Stadium campus in Inglewood, Calif.


Rob Carr/Getty Images

Only small, clear bags will be allowed inside the stadium on game day, though fans are encouraged to bring as little as possible with them.

“If you want to breeze through security, less is more. The less you bring, the faster you go through security,” said Cathy Lanier, the NFL’s chief security officer.

Security measures extend to the skies, too. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, known as NORAD, planned a defense exercise on Tuesday for the airspace over greater Inglewood. On Sunday, U.S. Air Force fighter jets will enforce the temporary flight-restricted zone in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies.

The FAA warned that drone operators who fly unmanned aircraft into the restricted area could face large fines and potential criminal prosecution.

MarketWatch contributed.