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Searing Canadian heatwave unprecedented but five more extreme events went under the radar

Searing Canadian heatwave unprecedented but five more extreme events went under the radar

The record-breaking heatwave that scorched western North America in June last year was among the most extreme events recorded globally, according to new research.

The team of climate scientists behind the study, led by the University of Bristol and published in the journal Science Advances, uncovered only five events around the world since 1960 that were more extreme — but they went largely unnoticed.

“This is the first study to comprehensively look at extreme heatwaves in terms of how much hotter they were compared to the local normal,” Eunice Lo, a senior research associate at the school of geographical sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment at the University of Bristol, told Mail & Guardian.

In June last year, the Canadian town of Lytton broke local temperature records by 4.6°C, setting a national temperature record of 49.6°C.

The authors said the temperatures were “unprecedented in records from 1950 to present day” for that location. The heatwave resulted in hundreds of deaths, with associated raging wildfires causing extensive infrastructure damage and loss of crops.

The Canadian heatwave shocked the world, the study’s lead author, Vikki Thompson, said in a statement. “Yet we show there have been some even greater extremes in the last few decades. Using climate models, we also find extreme heat events are likely to increase in magnitude over the coming century — at the same rate as the local average temperature.”

The study, which calculated how extreme heatwaves were relative to the local temperature, identified the top three hottest-ever heatwaves. They were in Southeast Asia in April 1998, hitting 32.8°C, Brazil in November 1985, peaking at 36.5°C, and the southern United States in July 1980, when temperatures soared to 38.4°C.

The study “exposes several greater meteorological extremes in recent decades, some of which went largely under the radar likely due to their occurrence in more deprived countries”, said Dann Mitchell, professor in climate sciences at the University of Bristol. 

Some extreme heatwaves “could have been ‘missed’ because of a lack of media attention at the time”, according to Lo.

Thompson said: “It is important to assess the severity of heatwaves in terms of local temperature variability because both humans and the natural ecosystem will adapt to this, so in regions where there is less variation, a smaller absolute extreme may have more harmful effects.”

In their paper, the scientists said although heat extremes are a natural part of climate change, they are getting hotter and longer because of human-induced climate change.

The scientists used climate model projections to anticipate heatwave trends for the rest of this century. This showed that levels of heatwave intensity are set to climb in line with increasing global temperatures.

“Heat extremes pose a threat to human and ecological health and the chance of extreme heat events has increased in most regions around the world. Excess mortality due to extreme heat is well documented, with an average of six heat-related deaths per 100 000 residents each year in North America estimated for 2000 to 2019.”

The effects of heatwaves are magnified in cities and, with nearly 70% of the worlds’ population expected to live in cities by 2050, the risks posed by extreme heat events will increase, the study said. 

Although the highest local temperatures do not necessarily cause the biggest harm, they are often related. The authors describe how improving the understanding of climate extremes and where they have occurred can help prioritise measures in the most vulnerable regions.

They note that “regions that, by chance, have not had a recent extreme heatwave may be less prepared for potentially imminent events”.

Mitchell said in the statement that climate change is one of the greatest global health problems of our time. 

“We have shown that many heatwaves outside of the developed world have gone largely unnoticed. The country-level burden of heat on mortality can be in the thousands of deaths, and countries which experience temperatures outside their normal range are the most susceptible to these shocks.”

Lo said: “There needs to be effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions at all levels — from the personal level (for example, choosing to walk rather than drive) to the national and international levels (through making climate policies). We also need to adapt to rising heat, as the impacts of heat are felt even in present-day climate.”

Parts of Africa, she said, were not included in the analysis “because the climate reanalysis datasets we used showed disagreement. This means results in those areas would be less robust.”

She said the current searing heatwave in India can be considered extreme because of its high absolute temperatures and timing. 

“Places that are densely populated and may not have the resources to adapt to climate change are particularly vulnerable to its impacts. India and Africa are projected to have the largest population increases in the next 50 years, meaning a lot more people will be exposed to extreme weather when it happens.”

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EU to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia as leaders meet

EU to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia as leaders meet

The European Union has vowed to unleash unprecedented sanctions against Russia as leaders head for Brussels for an emergency summit in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

The prospect of cutting Russia off from the international banking system is on the table as well as blocking its supply of crucial electrical components in a bid to force Moscow to change course.

A group of EU member states that border Russia have called for Nato to convene to consider a collective response, warning that Russia’s actions are a threat to them.

Some EU national leaders had wavered about imposing such sanctions for fear of the price that EU economies would also pay, and concerns over the continent’s reliance on imports of Russian gas at a time when costs are already high and supplies short.

But the strikes on targets in across the country including Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and advance of Russian troops over the borders is said to have hardened EU resolve and forged unity among the 27 as their ambassadors convened in Brussels to prepare a response early on Thursday.

“These are among the darkest hours for Europe since the end of World War Two. A major nuclear power has attacked a neighbour country, and is threatening reprisals on any other states that may come to its rescue,” the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell Fontelles said in a hastily-convened address.

“This is not only the greatest violation of international law, it’s a violation of the basic principles of human coexistence. It’s costing many lives, with unknown consequences ahead of us.

He vowed that the EU would “respond in the strongest possible terms” with “the strongest package, the harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented”, and that Russia’s leadership would face “unprecedented isolation”.

“This is not a question of diplomatic power games, it’s a matter of life and death. It’s about the future of our global community and we will stand united,” he continued.

Beyond sanctions, some EU member states that are members of Nato have called talks to consider a military response.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, which all border Russia, were once ruled by Moscow and fall within the area to which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his country has a historical claim.

All agreed to hold talks under Nato’s Article 4 on Thursday, according to a statement from the Estonian government. Article 4 provides for joint Nato consultations and potentially a response if any of its members feel “the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened”. It has been used six times since 1949.

“Russia’s widespread aggression is a threat to the entire world and to all Nat0 countries,” Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas said in a statement.

‘Bloodshed and destruction’

Boris Johnson has promised to respond decisively to what he described as Vladimir Putin’s choice of “a path of bloodshed and destruction” in Ukraine. Mr Johnson, who was woken up shortly after 4am with news of the Russian invasion, chaired an emergency Cobra meeting in Downing Street at 7.30am.

“I am appalled by the horrific events in Ukraine and I have spoken to President Zelenskiy to discuss next steps. President Putin has chosen a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The UK and our allies will respond decisively,” he said.

The British prime minister, who faced criticism for the weakness of sanctions he announced earlier this week, will unveil tougher measures later on Thursday. Labour leader Keir Starmer said Britain and Nato must respond decisively to Mr Putin’s actions, which he said would have “horrendous and tragic” consequences.

“There can be no space for equivocation when faced with the evil that Putin has unleashed. His actions pose a grave threat to the international order on which we all depend. There will be dark days ahead. But Putin will learn the same lesson as Europe’s tyrants of the last century: that the resolve of the world is harder than he imagines and the desire for liberty burns stronger than ever. The light will prevail,” he said.

“We must now match our rhetoric with action. We must urgently reinforce our Nato allies. The hardest possible sanctions must be taken against all those linked to Putin. The influence of Russian money must be extricated from the UK. And those who have for too long turned a blind eye to Russia’s actions must reckon with their own consciences.”

Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said that Britain and its allies should not be squeamish about imposing sanctions on Russia that will come at an economic cost to themselves. He said the cost of living crisis in western countries would get worse if Mr Putin is allowed to go unpunished for his action in Ukraine.

“The decisions made around Europe are absolutely going to shape the way Vladimir Putin sees this,” he told the BBC.

“The reality is that if we leave this to stand, if we let this pass, you can forget about petrol at £1.70 a litre, which is where it’s heading now. It will be significantly higher. 10 per cent of the world’s wheat is grown in Ukraine and the idea that this year’s going to be a good crop, I’m afraid, is for the birds. This is absolutely one of those moments where we’re going to see the cost-of-living crisis driven by war.”

France firmly condemns the Russian decision to invade Ukraine,” President Emmanuel Macron tweeted. “Russia must put an end to its military operations immediately. France stands in solidarity with Ukraine. She is beside the Ukrainians and acts with her partners and allies for the war to end.”

Mr Macron will participate in a G7 videoconference on Thursday afternoon and then go to Brussels for the summit of EU leaders to decide on “massive” sanctions against Moscow. The ambassadors of all 30 Nato members are to hold an emergency meeting in Brussels this morning.